Monday, September 19, 2022 / by Bryan Baylon
Counting the number of listings under contract is a better way of measuring demand than counting closed listings. Both numbers give us information but the listings under contract count is more indicative of present circumstances, even though it is more uncertain. Listings can drop out of escrow at any point for a number of reasons.
Here is our daily chart showing the number of listings under contract for the last six months:
This tells the story quite well I think. Things were just peachy back in March with the under contract listing count at well over 11,500. April was a little worrying as they faded to around 11,000 but this this did not cause serious alarm unless you were a subscriber to the Cromford® Report. We raised the red flag of warning on April 24.
May through July saw a collapse in demand that can be clearly seen in the chart above. With interest rates rising, may buyers dropped out due to affordability and qualification problems.
August saw a mild recovery, probably due to the lower interest rates that appeared for several weeks. However now that they have surged well over 6%, the buyers are going on strike again and the listings under contract count is struggling to break over 8,000. This is a pretty low bar by historical standards and the apparent inability to stay above it is a worrying sign.
Market insights provided by The Cromford Report.