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September 10, 2022 Market Update

Saturday, September 10, 2022   /   by Bryan Baylon

September 10, 2022 Market Update

New listings are thin on the ground today in the residential re-sale section of the ARMLS database. However, the same can not be said of the residential rental section. We just recorded the largest ever year-over year percentage increase in the rate of new rental listings. We do not include short-term rentals in any of our numbers, only long-term residential leases.

We have recorded 2,916 new rental listings in the last 28 days which is up 60% from 1,826 this time last year.

Previous years were:

  • 2020 - 1,963
  • 2019 - 2,498
  • 2018 - 2,343
  • 2017 - 2,668
  • 2016 - 2,733
  • 2015 - 3,127
  • 2014 - 3,512
  • 2013 - 4,204
  • 2012 - 3,924

We can see that 2,916 is not excessive by long-term standards, but is very high relative to the last 2 years and the highest for Sep 10 since 2015.

Clearly the rental market is going through some big changes if so many landlords are feeling the need to list their homes on ARMLS to find a tenant. In a strong rental market, most landlords don't bother, since they can usually find a tenant without going through the process of creating an MLS listing.

There were 3,449 active rental listings (excluding short-term rentals) yesterday. This is up 149% from the same date last year and up 15% from a month ago.

New renters have more choice than they had just a month ago and dramatically more than last year. They are also looking at an average listed rent of $1.56 per sq. ft. per month. It was $1.61 last month and $1.90 this time last year. We are not seeing the same downward trend in the average and median prices of leases signed, but the upward trend in these appears to have largely petered out over the past year. Any increase certainly seems to be lower than the current inflation rate.

The available rentals on ARMLS are dominated by single-family detached homes with a 74% market share. This is higher than this time last year at 65% and far higher than in 2020, when they comprised just 43% of active supply. Across the valley, single-family detached homes are much cheaper to rent than attached homes, when the lease price is adjusted for the sq. ft. of living space. Apartments are currently on offer at an average of $1.93 per sq. ft. per month, while townhomes are at $1.87 per sq. ft. per month. This change in the mix has contributed to the lowering of the average lease price per sq. ft. Condos, townhomes and apartments tend to be located more centrally which increases their price per sq. ft. Single-family detached homes are available for an average of $1.49 per sq. ft. per month, down from $1.91 this time last year. A large number of newly built single-family detached homes have been targeted at renters, increasing the available supply.

At least based on ARMLS asking prices, renting a single-family detached home has become more affordable in Greater Phoenix over the past year, while buying has become dramatically less affordable, partly because of higher asking prices, but mostly because of much higher interest rates. It should not be surprising that demand for purchasing homes is so weak, but it is surprising that the rental market appears to be losing demand, at least based on the average rents being asked.

Market insights provided by The Cromford Report.
Keller Williams Northeast Realty - The Baylon Group
Bryan Baylon
2005 W. Happy Valley Rd #150
Phoenix, AZ 85085

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