To put the demand situation into context, it helps to look at the count of listings under contract. The chart below shows counts made every Saturday during 2022, 2021 and 2007 (the weakest year ever for demand).

2021 was a strong year, and 2022 started well - almost as strong as 2021 until the end of the first quarter. Since then demand has weakened quickly in the face of higher interest rates, albeit with a pause in the decline during August and September. Since the end of September it has dropped further and is starting to approach the dismal levels of 2007. However we currently have about 1,900 more listings under contract than we saw at the same time in 2007, so things can be worse.

Under contract listing counts tend to fall during the last two months of the year, so it is still possible that we start 2023 at a lower level than we started 2007. The difference between now and 2007 is that we have far fewer active listings. There are also very few distressed active listings, so there is not as much downward pressure on prices as we saw in 2007.


Market insights provided by the Cromford Report.