Thursday, May 19, 2022 / by Bryan Baylon
May 19, 2022 Market Update
Our primary leading indicator, the Cromford® Market Index, is telling that us that the cooling trend is getting even more powerful. Every city has seen its CMI decline by at least 15% and the average for these 17 cities is a fall of 24%, compared with an average of 20.5% last week. At some point we would expect the nose-dive to decelerate and reach an equilibrium, but we seem to be a long way from that point at the moment. The first signal we are waiting for is for the average monthly change (-24%) to be lower than the prior week.
Worst affected are Queen Creek (-36%), Gilbert (-34%), Avondale (-30%) and Cave Creek (-30%).
It remains easy to sell a home at the moment but if this cooling trend stays in place, selling will start to get much more difficult by August.
We note that only one city (Fountain Hills) is still over 400. One month ago there were only 6 cities below 400. What a difference one month can make.
Market incites provided by the Cromford report.