Saturday, June 4, 2022 / by Bryan Baylon
Since the market downturn started we have seen all of the early dominoes fall. If we were in a non-serious situation, then there are several middle-ranking dominoes that would not topple and the early ones would start to stand upright again.
But instead we are starting to see the middle-order start to wobble and fall over. Here is one of them - the number of closed listings per month, measured on a weekly basis.
2022 had been running behind 2021 all year, but not by a large amount. Up until late April, the sales rate was not of concern. Then in May things got worrisome. The 2022 sales rate took a sharp dive and is now 16% below the reading in 2021.
This leads me to conclude that the market is serious about this change of direction and the new trend is likely to continue for some considerable time.
Last year we saw a sales reduction in July, but this is normally when sales rates start to drop for seasonal reasons (Phoenix gets very hot in May). Thanks to large investors and iBuyers, the closing rates recovered during the rest of 2021.
There two things that concern me about the sales decline in 2022
- It is taking place in May, which in a healthy market should be one of the busiest months for closing
- We are seeing a very steep drop in a short period.
In this environment, selling a home is no longer like falling off a log. Showings will be fewer in number and offers far less easy to get than they were in March. Once buyers realize what is going one, expect them to start flexing their negotiating muscles. They might even ask for the seller to pay for a Home Warranty (shocking I know).
Market incites provided by the Cromford report.