Thursday, June 30, 2022 / by Bryan Baylon
This is the third week in a row where the average monthly change in CMI was -35%. There is not much difference between 16 of the 17 cities, but Paradise Valley stands out as an exception. It has only lost 5% over the past month and has even seen no fall at all over the past 10 days. Among the smaller cities, Arizona City stands out - its CMI has been rising for the last 2 weeks with demand in this relatively inexpensive location staying unusually strong.
These 2 exceptions aside, the plunging demand and rising supply is having a dramatic effect on market balance. Buckeye will be a balanced market during the first 2 weeks of July with that balance looking like it will swing more towards buyers with every day that passes. Queen Creek and Maricopa are about 1 week behind Buckeye. We then have Cave Creek, Chandler, Gilbert, Peoria, Phoenix, Surprise and Tempe all in a similar condition. Their markets are cooling rapidly and look likely to move into the balance zoned within a matter of weeks rather than months.
Unless the current trends change, we could be in a buyer's market across much of Central Arizona by the beginning of September.
One brighter sign is that the number of new listings over the past 7 days is down from the extreme high of the week before. At some point the seller stampede may run out of new sellers. This is not happening yet, but at least the rate at which sellers are joining the stampede is slowing.
Market incites provided by the Cromford report.