The number of new listings added to the ARMLS database over the past 28 days is 11,845. Why is this significant? It is because it is the highest number added in any 28 period since we started measuring this statistic in 2011.

The long term average is 8,845, so we are currently getting 34% more new supply than average.

If we were just suffering deflating demand, the market would be cooling off gently. But if 34% more new listings are arriving every 4 weeks, supply is increasing just at the wrong time and it just cannot be absorbed. This is why we are seeing the fastest cooling trend that the Greater Phoenix housing market has ever experienced. What we do not know is whether the extra listings will keep coming or if this excess new supply will dry up sooner rather than later.

Also adding to the active listing count are listings under contract that are falling through. The listing success rate chart is a reliable market measurement tool and confirms the messages sent to us by the Cromford® Market Index and the Contract Ratio.

Market incites provided by the Cromford report.