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June 14, 2022 Market Update

Tuesday, June 14, 2022   /   by Bryan Baylon

June 14, 2022 Market Update

With demand down and supply growing, the upward pressure on pricing is dissipating very quickly. This is best measured by the average price per sq. ft. The readings move at different points in the cycle.

  1. First to change are list prices for active listings, as sellers start to compete with each other by lowering their asking prices.
  2. Second to change are list prices for listings under contract, as the better deals go under contract sooner than over-priced homes.
  3. Last to change are prices for closed listings, since their contract prices were determined a month or two prior to close of escrow.

At the Cromford® Report, we like to measure these things on a daily basis. Hence the chart below, which covers six months. The figures for closed listings use the average for listing that closed in the immediately preceding monthly period. On June 13 this means listings that closed between May 13 and June 12.
Screen Shot 2022-06-16 at 11.40.16 AM.png

This chart has many very clear messages if we take the time to read them:

  1. Asking prices are coming down. They peaked on April 27 at $364.81, then gradually started to ease. They are drifting downward and are currently hovering around $353.
  2. Under contract prices are also coming down. They peaked on May 14 at $314.06 and have now settled back to $311 with a gentle downtrend established.
  3. Closed pricing has moved mostly sideways since the beginning of May, but the high point reached so far was $305.97 on June 10. The is little sign of them going over $306 and as the under-contract prices decline, this will severely limit any upside to closed prices. The red line will always tend to stay below the green line.
  4. The list price for closed listings is still rising a little, because the achieved percentage of list is falling.

In a normal market, the red line is always below the brown line (that is, most buyers pay less than list price), but right now the average closed sale went for about 1% more than the asking price. This situation probably will not last much longer.

If current trends continue, we may very well see the average price of closed listings start to fall, while still staying slightly higher than the average list price of those closed homes. This is something I would have previously believed as rare as a unicorn. It can only happen when the change from hot to cold is as fast and violent as we have seen between mid-April and June 2022. This has not been observed since we started measurements in 2000.

Anyone who is planning to sell their home today needs to understand that their property is no longer likely to appreciate in the months ahead. Be grateful for the incredible surge in its value over the past several years, but all good things come to an end.

Market incites provided by the Cromford report.

Keller Williams Northeast Realty - The Baylon Group
Bryan Baylon
2005 W. Happy Valley Rd #150
Phoenix, AZ 85085
602-410-0827

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