Inventory continues to build at an astonishing rate. This is easy to see using the weekly active listings chart:

Buyers are now seeing between 800 and 900 more active listings to choose from every week. If the trend continues at this frenetic rate we could reach market balance as soon as mid-August. But will it continue? We do not pretend to know the future, but when a trend is this strong it tends have pretty good staying power.

If we compare today (June 11) with 3 months ago (March 11), we can see that:

• active listings across all areas and types have grown 138% from 4,820 to 11,471
• active single-family detached listings have grown the most - 148%, with townhouse / condos up 139% and mobile homes only up 28%
• active Greater Phoenix listings are up 140% while out-of-area listings are up 121% with Apache County up 312%, Coconino County up 232%, Gila County up 164%, Navajo County up 134% and Yavapai County up 124%
• homes priced between $400,000 and $1 million are up 183%, while homes between $1 million and $2 million are up 163%
• homes priced less than $400,000 are up 69% while homes over $2 million are up 59%

In these numbers we have excluded UCB and CCBS active listings.

Due to the increased competition among sellers we are seeing a large jump in the number of list price reductions. Sellers' less lofty ambitions are also reflected in the average price per sq. ft. for active listings which has retreated from a peak of $364 in late April to $353 today. The price per sq. ft. of pending listings is flat-lining around $310 and showing little momentum to break through its peak level of $314 achieved in late May.

In 2005 it took a long time for people to realize that prices would not necessarily go up forever and despite a rapidly deteriorating market, it was not until mid 2006 that sale prices started to fall. The deterioration in 2022 is much faster than in 2005 and people are primed to believe that price declines are likely, if not inevitable. The willingness to believe in price declines may compensate for the absence of homeowner distress - foreclosure notices remain close to record low levels.

It is looking possible that $305 to $310 will be a top in average sales price per sq. ft. and anyone expecting closing prices to continue rising much beyond their current level is likely to be disappointed.

Market incites provided by the Cromford report.