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July 8, 2022 Market Update

Friday, July 8, 2022   /   by Bryan Baylon

July 8, 2022 Market Update

Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest citiesScreen Shot 2022-07-08 at 9.03.22 AM.png

If you are looking for some good news, I have a tiny morsel for you. The average monthly change in CMI was -34%. This is smaller than the -35% we saw for each of the past three weeks. However the difference is really small and the negative trend is still very powerful. We now have 2 cities (Buckeye and Queen Creek) that are in the balanced zone between 90 and 110 and a third (Maricopa) that is only a seller's market by one tenth of a point. We can be confident that Maricopa and Queen Creek will be in a balanced zone next week, but on current trends, Buckeye will be the first city to become a buyer's market during the third week of July. Queen Creek and Maricopa look likely to follow before the end of July.

Paradise Valley is seeing a very stable supply and its CMI is down only 3% for the month. Fountain Hills and Cave Creek are next best with falls of 25% and 26% in their CMI

Much worse are all the other 14 cities with CMI dropping by 32% or more. Glendale is worst this week with a 43% fall.

Because the CMI is based on a formula that uses rolling averages and smoothing techniques, at this time of unprecedented rapid change it understates quite how far the market has deteriorated for sellers. With so many new sellers and so few buyers, prices are looking more wobbly by the day and almost all the price readings look very ready to drop during July.

Almost all the monthly median sales prices are below their recent peak. For example on July 7:

  • Avondale is down from $460,000 to $450,000
  • Buckeye is down from $451,040 to $445,500
  • Chandler is down from $630,000 to $577,450
  • Gilbert is down from $635,000 to $623,950
  • Goodyear is down from $554,700 to $520,800
  • Maricopa is down from $415,000 to $410,000
  • Mesa is down from $520,000 to $500,000
  • Peoria is down from $570,000 to $550,000
  • Phoenix is down from $500,000 to $480,000
  • Queen Creek is down from $515,000 to $510,000
  • Scottsdale is down from $1,115,000 to $1,100,000
  • Surprise is down from $494,495 to $490,000
  • Tempe is down from $585,000 to $555,000

Only Glendale is unchanged at $475,000 but this will probably not last much longer.

We omit Cave Creek, Fountain Hills and Paradise Valley because their monthly medians are far too volatile to be useful, as a result of their very small transaction volumes and wide ranges in home prices.

Unless trends change sharply from their current trajectory, we are likely to see further weakness in median sales prices over the next several months. We are definitely NOT able to forecast 5 months into the future. However it would not be at all surprising if prices in December 2022 were in the same ball-park as those we saw in December 2021. This is just one of many plausible outcomes that would have looked nearly impossible to imagine as recently as March when almost every seller had multiple buyers to chose from.


Market incites provided by the Cromford report.

Keller Williams Northeast Realty - The Baylon Group
Bryan Baylon
2005 W. Happy Valley Rd #150
Phoenix, AZ 85085
602-410-0827

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