Now would be a good time to take stock of where prices have been going. The chart below shows:

1. In blue - the average list price per square foot of listings in active status
2. In green - the average list price per square foot of listings in pending status or active with UCB or CCBS status
3. In brown - the average list price per square foot for one month's worth of closed listings
4. In red - the average sale price per square foot for one month's worth of closed listings

This chart tells us quite a few things:

• Asking prices for homes for-sale have been on a downward trend since peaking just under $365 per square foot on April 27, three days after our first red-flag warning was issued.
• The average list price per square foot for active listings is down 6.6% over the last 68 days
• The average list price per square foot for listings under contract has failed to break above $315 and has moved mostly sideways since peaking at $314.06 per square foot on May 14
• The average list price per square foot for listings under contract is down 0.7% over the last 51 days
• The average list price per square foot for closed listings has failed to break above $303 and has moved mostly sideways since peaking at $302.38 per square foot on June 14
• The average list price per square foot for closed listings is down 1.3% over the last 20 days
• The average sale price per square foot for closed listings peaked on May 13 at $305.99 and has fallen 2.8% since then (52 days)

The blue line is being driven down by 3 main factors

• more listings are piling up in the ranges from $400,000 to $600,000 than other price ranges. This change in the mix brings the average price per square foot down.
• new listings are being added at less ambitious prices as sellers start to get more realistic in their expectations
• large numbers of existing listings have had their asking prices cut as sellers get even more realistic in their expectations

The average price per square foot for active listings remains well above its level in January when the market was still getting hotter. The trend is clearly down however.

The green line needs to fall if the brown line is going to decline significantly. Both are currently moving sideways, but with a bias towards the downside.

The red line has moved from well above the brown line to just below the brown line. This is what we commented on yesterday. The lowering of closed sales prices has been driven down by sellers agreeing to take a lower percentage of their asking price than they were accepting 30 days ago.

The interactive version of the chart can be found here.

Overall, we see a market that is past its top and looking wobbly. To avoid a more serious downward trend in prices, we would need to see supply stop growing and demand stop shrinking. We will be examining the numbers every day for any sign of either of these events occurring. If both happen, then we would expect stabilization. If neither happens then we would expect all price measurements to move lower during the second half of 2022.


Market incites provided by the Cromford report.