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August 7, 2022 Market Update

Sunday, August 7, 2022   /   by Bryan Baylon

August 7, 2022 Market Update

Most people are familiar with the idea of "months of supply". One way to explain it is to say it represents how long it would take to sell all the available inventory at the current monthly sales rate if no new listings came onto the market. The longer it takes the cooler the market. Obviously it will tend to increase when the number of available active listings rises. It will also tend to increase when the monthly sales rate falls.

It is important to decide what we are going to include among the active listings. If we include the UCB and CCBS listings (which are technically still active and accumulating days on market), then for a normal everyday location a typical number of months of supply for a balanced market is 4 to 5 months. If we exclude the UCB and CCBS listings (since they are already in escrow with a signed contract), then the typical number is 3 to 4 months.

The numbers tend to be much higher for an expensive market. A normal balanced number for Paradise Valley is 12 to 15 months. For Scottsdale it is 6 to 7 months, for Gold Canyon 7 to 8 months, Cave Creek is 6 to 7 months and Fountain Hills 7 to 8 months. These are excluding UCB and CCBS listings.

Here is where the single-family detached months of supply for major and secondary cities stand at the moment. The numbers in parentheses are the reading for August 2021.:

  1. Paradise Valley - 10.2 (3.5)
  2. Buckeye - 4.4 (1.1)
  3. Scottsdale - 4.4 (1.6)
  4. Queen Creek - 4.3 (1.1)
  5. Litchfield Park - 4.2 (1.3)
  6. Gold Canyon - 4.2 (2.0)
  7. Maricopa - 4.1 (1.2)
  8. Fountain Hills - 4.1 (2.1)
  9. Cave Creek - 3.9 (1.1)
  10. Surprise - 3.9 (1.0)
  11. Apache Junction - 3.5 (1.1)
  12. Sun Lakes - 3.4 (0.9)
  13. Anthem - 3.4 (1.0)
  14. Chandler - 3.3 (1.0)
  15. Gilbert - 3.3 (0.9)
  16. Tolleson - 3.3 (1.1)
  17. Phoenix - 3.2 (1.1)
  18. Mesa - 3.2 (1.0)
  19. Tempe - 3.2 (1.1)
  20. Casa Grande - 3.1 (1.5)
  21. Glendale - 3.0 (1.0)
  22. Goodyear - 3.0 (1.0)
  23. Avondale - 2.9 (0.9)
  24. Peoria - 2.9 (1.0)
  25. Sun City West - 2.8 (0.7)
  26. Laveen - 2.7 (1.0)
  27. Arizona City - 2.6 (1.4)
  28. Sun City - 2.5 (1.0)
  29. El Mirage - 2.0 (0.6)

These figures include the UCB and CCBS active listings. They have clearly moved from extremely low in August 2021 to more normal values in August 2022. However none of them are yet excessive compared with their long-term averages. Buckeye, Queen Creek, Maricopa and Litchfield Park are the coolest cities, which corresponds with their CMI readings. We give a pass to Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Cave Creek Fountain Hills and Gold Canyon, since their "normal" months of supply are higher than their current readings.


Market insights provided by the Cromford report.
Keller Williams Northeast Realty - The Baylon Group
Bryan Baylon
2005 W. Happy Valley Rd #150
Phoenix, AZ 85085
602-410-0827

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