The flow of new listings has eased substantially over the past few weeks. As recently as June 26, we reported a record weekly total of 3,169, which was the culmination of an elevated arrival rate that had lasted since April 26. However this eased in July to a more normal 2,700 per week and during August it has fallen well below normal to reach 2,224 as of today.

This is down 9.7% from the same week last year and down 5.2% from the same week in 2020. New supply can be properly described as weak now, so rather appropriate for a market with weak demand, as we have been experiencing over the last several months.

If new supply stays low, then we are unlikely to see the sharp increases in active listing counts that we have reported between April and July. In fact if demand picks up a bit, supply could start to retreat again. The first sign of this would be counts that fall when comparing the same weekday 7 days earlier. This is not yet occurring for the market as a whole, but several segments are seeing a small drop in active listings comparing today with a week ago. This includes:

• apartment-style dwellings
• townhomes
• single-family detached in:
  • Chandler
  • Gilbert
  • Glendale
  • Mesa
  • Peoria
  • Scottsdale
  • Tolleson

Of course interest rates could rise again and take the wind out of the sails. But at the moment, overall demand is improving and in the more central parts of the valley such as Phoenix, Tempe and the cities above, it would not be surprising to see the market balance move towards sellers over the next several weeks. The outer areas are more likely to remain weak for sellers, with additional supply coming from new home developers all the time and a stronger flow of new re-sale listings from investors and iBuyers.

Market insights provided by The Cromford Report.